Wednesday, January 3, 2007

Bring it, bitches.

This is actually a bit old, and recycled: I decided to syncronize my Facebook posts with these, so my blog doesn't look so bare.

Here are some recent thoughts of mine, thoroughly unprocessed by reflection or peer review:

criminal behaviour: Levitt, among others, has convincingly shown that more police lead to less crime. but why? is it because criminals are deterred by the immediate threat of violence (i.e. it is the increased *visibility* of the police that does the job) or is it because criminals believe (perhaps based on the testimony of other criminals in their peer groups) that they will be caught (because there are more detectives working)? if the former, to what degree could civilian presence substitute for this?

why does technical analysis still exist? is it not transparently a sham; it it not obvious that it is merely post hoc just-so-storytelling? Why haven't these guys thought about what would happen if every trader thought like them? (the failure to 'simulate' other trader's thoughts surprises me in particular. haven't they ever taken any game theory?)

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